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Farecast.com is the Web site, bought this year by Microsoft, that uses historical trends to try to predict airfares. That helps consumers answer the nagging question, “Should I book now or wait until fares drop?”

Farecast says in a news release this week that airfares for the holidays are up more than 30 percent over last year, which could mean spending an extra $100 or more.

It offers these tips:

• Be flexible with your travel dates. If you have flexibility, you will be rewarded with big savings. Returning on Monday or Tuesday vs. Sunday might save you more than $90 per ticket.
• Watch October for holiday price drops. Most previous late-December itineraries saw price drops in the first two weeks of October. Farecast data suggest there are 50% more price drops during the holidays than other times of the year, so alerts are critical to catch elusive deals.
• If you’re traveling from a big market, you should wait. Major markets are much more likely to see price drops this fall, and you should closely monitor for lower fares before purchasing. If you’re flying out of smaller/regional airports, you should buy as soon as you find a fare you’re comfortable with.
• You will pay more this year. Unless you find the deal of the season, you will pay more for holiday flights than in years past. You should accept this and not hold out for a lower fare. It likely won’t come, and the cost will just continue to rise.